Global Politics, International High Finance, Propaganda

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

Hide the INCLINE

Yet another Warmunist prediction of thermogeddon. - Catastrophists claim that the North Pole is going to melt completely!

Recently there has been much "catastrophist" talk about how the North Pole is going to melt completely.  This dogma is especially strong here in Brighton, England, which has a Green Party in power, not just at local level, but also at the national level.

The significance of the melting arctic is that it is supposed to cause huge floods all over the world by raising the sea level

For the Catastrophists this is THE BIG ONE!!

For example:-

In his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech (Dec. 10, 2007) former Vice President Al Gore referred to a prediction by U.S. climate scientist Wieslaw Maslowski that the Arctic’s summer ice could “completely disappear” by 2013 due to global warming caused by carbon emissions.

Gore said (on Sept. 21, 2007) that "scientists reported with unprecedented alarm that the North Polar icecap is, in their words, 'falling off a cliff.' One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week warns that it could happen in as little as seven years, seven years from now." (ie in 2014)

Gore also warned that rising temperatures were “a planetary emergency and a threat to the survival of our civilization.”

Maslowski had told members of the American Geophysical Union (in 2007) that the Arctic’s summer ice could completely disappear within the decade. (ie by 2017) “If anything,” he said, “our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer… is already too conservative.”

As yet another example of how important the Arctic ice is:- In 2008, James Hanson said "The disappearence of the Arctic Ice was "the first tipping point"(‘This is the last chance.’)

Hansen also said that in five to 10 years, (ie by 2013) the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.

And, John Kerry, US Secretary of State said the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013 - (We Can’t Ignore the Security Threat from Climate Change)

(see below for more hysteria about the arctic ice )

However, the alarmist evidence for this hysterical claim is yet another "deliberate-deception-that-uses-a-graph" and, as such, is similar to the "Hide the Decline" swindle, discussed in another of my blog articles.

The evidence for the arctic melting is best summarised in a graph of how-much-ice-there-is-at-the-arctic. (The volume of ice in cubic kilometres)

Whether you think the melting at the North Pole is significant or not depends on which part of the graph you choose to look at.

(Taken from:- http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/screenhunter_170-jun-15-11-10.jpg)

The alarmists choose to start their graphs in 1978, (as above,) when the arctic was the biggest that it has been this century, and are thus able to present a downward-sloping graph as evidence to support their claim such as "Three-quarters of Arctic sea ice lost in 30 years."

However, if you include their own measurements prior to that date, as the graph shown below does (the graph is taken from the 1990 IPCC report), then you can see that there was much less ice in 1974 than there was in 1990 and - more importantly - that there was an INCREASE prior to 1978.


This Arctic-ice alarmism depends on them hiding the INCLINE between 1975 and 1979 and only showing the DECLINE from 1979 onwards.


[[ AAARGHH!!!  - the picture above is an animated "gif" file but some browsers wont play it as an animation, they show it as a static un-animated picture. AAARGHH!!
So to compensate for this I include the sub-pictures of the animation

]]

Relevent links to more detailed analyses of the issue are:-

"Arctic Sea Ice 01."

"Arctic Sea Ice 02."

The same data is presented in a graph from NOAA, who have Arctic ice records going back to at least 1973. Winter sea ice in 1974 was nearly two million km² lower in 1974 than it was in 1979.



The NOAA graph is from page 51 of http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/climate-assessment-1981-1990.pdf



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More Ice

On the topic of how much ice there is at the North Pole, it turns out that the amount of Sea Ice (ice not on land) present in the Northern Hemisphere has reversed its recent decline.


The figure for 2013 shows MORE ice than in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, which goes against the downward trend from 1978 shown in the above graph and - more clearly - in this graph

taken from "Sea Ice Extent Minimum" taken from the Danish government's "Centre for Ocean and Ice." which itself took the data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's web site (NSIDC) at http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index.

The above graph does indicate a steady decrease in sea ice, however it has also been deliberately started from 1978 so as to exclude the INCREASE in sea ice that happened just prior to that - in this way it gives a deliberately misleading impression.

Yet another Incline hidden, another "Hiding of the Incline"

Note also that there are 15 Peer Reviewed Studies that confirm that the Arctic was warmer during the Medieval Warm Period than it is now. And yet there was not catastrophic widespread flooding.

Note also that there has been no Arctic warming for the past eight years, according to the satellite measurements of temperature, even though CO2 has soared past 400 PPM. see:-
Another global warming canary freezes to death

=========
UPDATE:- Below is the same graph, but for Sept 2015. Arctic Sea ice extent is the highest for the date in over a decade.
This graph is taken from the Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Ocean and Ice Services at  http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

The graph has had colours added to it to emphasise that this year the arctic has had the Shortest melt season on record and the Fastest ice growth on record.

UPDATE:- December 2015
Below is the same graph, but for Dec 2015. Unprecedented ice growth continues in the Arctic
This graph is also taken from the Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut Ocean and Ice Services at:- http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

================ End of update

MORE HYSTERIA ABOUT THE ARCTIC

The following two quotes are from "The National Geographic" in 2007:- Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?

“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado. “The sea ice seems to be on this death spiral,” he said.

AND

This week (2007), after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”



AND
THIS QUOTE FROM THE BBC in 2007 :-



Notice how the BBC states that its prediction of an ice-free arctic by 2013 may be "too conservative"

Taken from:- Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′

HERE ARE SOME MORE (INCORRECT) PREDICTIONS OF "NO ICE IN THE ARCTIC"


Canada.com – 16 November 2007

“According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.

“And it’s probably going to happen even faster than that,” said Fortier,””

[Professor Louis Fortier РUniversité Laval, Director ArcticNet]

__________________

National Geographic – 12 December 2007

“NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” ”

[Dr. Jay Zwally – NASA]

__________________

BBC – 12 December 2007

“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,”…….”So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”

[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]

__________________

National Snow and Ice Data Center – 5 May 2008

“Could the North Pole be ice free this melt season? Given that this region is currently covered with first-year ice, that seems quite possible.”

__________________

National Geographic News – 20 June 2008

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

[Dr. David Barber]

__________________

Independent – 27 June 2008

Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer

“…..It is quite likely that the North Pole will be exposed this summer – it’s not happened before,” Professor Wadhams said.”

[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

__________________

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Report – 2009

“…There is a possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean for a short period in summer perhaps as early as 2015. This would mean the disappearance of multi-year ice, as no sea ice would survive the summer melt season….”

http://www.arctis-search.com/Arctic+Marine+Shipping+Assessment+%28AMSA%29

__________________

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Vol. 40: 625-654 – May 2012

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice

“…..one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover…..”

[Professor Wieslaw Maslowski]

__________________

Guardian – 11 August 2012

“Very soon we may experience the iconic moment when, one day in the summer, we look at satellite images and see no sea ice coverage in the Arctic, just open water.”

[Dr Seymour Laxon – Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling – UCL]

__________________

Yale Environment360 – 30 August 2012

“If this rate of melting [in 2012] is sustained in 2013, we are staring down the barrel and looking at a summer Arctic which is potentially free of sea ice within this decade,”

[Dr. Mark Drinkwater]

__________________

Guardian – 17 September 2012

“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.

[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

__________________

Sierra Club – March 23, 2013

“For the record—I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean….”

[Paul Beckwith – PhD student paleoclimatology and climatology – part-time professor]

__________________

Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013

“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”

[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

__________________

The Scotsman – 12 September 2013

“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

…….It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”

[Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/18/sea-ice-news-volume-4-number-4-the-maslowski-countdown-to-an-ice-free-arctic-begins/#comment-1394083

============
DOES THE SEA LEVEL RISE EVERY SUMMER?

The animation below is of the amount of snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere and how it changes every month. Every summer all this snow (and ice) melts, and turns into water which runs down to the ocean.

So :-
* every winter the white area of snow and ice is made up of what used to be sea water. And
* every summer the missing white area which used to be snow and ice has become sea water.

The question I am asking here is - Does the sea level rise every summer because of all this melt water? Surely there should be coastal floods all over the world every summer caused by melted ice and snow?

And - by the same process - surely the sea level should fall every winter because of the sea water that has become snow on land. Surely sea ports should be left high and dry in winter, every winter.

And, if the sea level doesn't change, how can these climate experts be sure of huge floods if just the ice at the Arctic melts completely every summer? We need more detailed reasoning and evidence.

This animation was stitched together by John Nelson of http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com/ from images from NASA.
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